Elise Stefanik has a national profile and is one of the top Republican leaders in the House of Representatives. She’s talked about as a future speaker of the House, building on years of recruiting and supporting candidates, as well as a tightly cultivated relationship with President Donald Trump.
Is she really going to blow that up to run a long-shot bid for governor of New York?
The 40-year-old congressmember is at a political fork in the road after Trump pulled her nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations, citing a too-close-for-comfort nose count in the GOP-controlled House. People familiar with Stefanik’s thinking say it’s increased her standing, soured her relationship with House Speaker Mike Johnson and prompted her to seriously consider challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2026.
Stefanik mentioned the state’s high taxes and criminal-justice policies. She’s planning to attend political events around the state in the coming weeks, including a gathering in Albany County this weekend and an appearance next month in Suffolk County.
“I think it's a low-risk, high-reward move for Representative Stefanik,” said Luke Perry, a political scientist at Utica University. Even if she lost, she would raise her profile and would be in line for an appointment in the Trump administration, he said.
Winning would be difficult. No Republican has been elected to statewide office in New York since George Pataki in 2002. There are about 3 million more enrolled Democrats than Republicans in the state. Democrats have all the advantages of incumbency.
And Stefanik would have to answer for Trump. She’s become a staunch backer of the president after first winning election in 2014 as a moderate. A Siena College Research Institute poll last month found voters disagree with Trump’s plans for tariffs and shuttering federal agencies. His favorability rating was 40%.
“Donald Trump has made sure that the Republican Party brand is so tainted in New York that no matter who runs against me, they will have the baggage of explaining why people's prices went up, why they lost health care,” Hochul said Monday on CNN.
But Hochul is hardly faring better in the polls. Her own favorability rating in that Siena poll was 44%.
Stefanik had $8.5 million in her congressional campaign account as of March, compared to the $15.5 million that Hochul reported in January. A poll showed Stefanik would easily win a GOP primary against other potential candidates, including Rep. Mike Lawler or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. On Tuesday, Trump endorsed Lawler and Blakeman … for re-election to their current offices. He said nothing about Stefanik.
So she has the luxury of time. People familiar with Stefanik’s thinking say she can wait to see the results of the New York City mayor’s race and Trump’s first year in office before making a formal decision.
Ballot Box
This week we're wondering: Should Elise Stefanik run for governor, and do you think she could win?
Last week we asked: Do you support the New York school smartphone ban?
Here’s how 13 respondents voted:
“Yes. School is where students should interact with their teachers and peers, not a screen. Kids are already behind in reading/math, so their attention needs to be that, not who said what about who and did you see what he’s wearing?”
- Nina, Manhattan
“No. I think this is a good idea in a world where school shootings don't exist. The reality in this country is that schools are not safe for kids, so they need to be able to communicate with the world in the event of an emergency.”
- Ashley, Brooklyn
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9 headlines
(1) Tonight: Tune in at 7 p.m. to hear a live conversation with New Jersey's Republican gubernatorial primary candidates, co-hosted by WNYC's Michael Hill. Listen on WNYC or on the WNYC app. More information here.
(2) Elon Musk wants to launch a person-to-person payment system on X akin to Zelle or Venmo. New York lawmakers want to stop it. Here’s why.
(3) Even if he loses New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary, Andrew Cuomo has a plan to be on the ballot in November. Here’s how.
(4) Mayor Eric Adams and the MTA have joined forces to call on Amtrak to change its plan to repair two East River tunnels. Here’s why.
(6) New York lawmakers agreed to close three state prisons and let 18-year-olds become guards as part of the state’s new budget. Here’s what else is included.
(7) Attorney General Letitia James is suing the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Here’s why.
(9) Listen: City Limits reporter Mariana Simões spoke to Brian Lehrer about how cuts to staff within the Environmental Protection Agency are affecting community groups in New York City. Listen here.
‘Word from the Curb’ live broadcast is coming to a neighborhood near you
The New York City area is in the midst of another election year. Voting patterns are shifting, and issues like affordability, public safety and the use of public space are top of mind for folks — and we want to know how that is playing out across the city on the ground level.
To that end, the "All Things Considered" team is holding a series of live broadcasts from neighborhoods at the forefront of that change. We’ll be talking with community stakeholders, elected officials and voters about how these issues are playing out on their blocks and in their homes. Along the way, we’ll also be finding moments of joy to bring communities together.
We’re calling it Word from the Curb. Our first live broadcast will be from Judy’s, a cafe in Sunset Park this Thursday, May 8. We hope you tune in to the show starting around 4 p.m. (Download our app here!)
We’ll keep you posted on future live broadcasts throughout the city during this election season. Some of the shows will be broadcast in front of a live audience and we’d love to see you there.
